Mathematicians may have a better way to measure agreement across different datasets. Agreement affects reproducibility, meta-analysis, and prediction to fill in missing data points. We need a more ...

Learn what other financial gurus have to say about Elon Musk's prediction of a future without work and universal wealth for ...

Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical ...

A fox, a hedgehog and an LLM – it sounds like the beginning of a joke, but this is in fact the introduction to a topic that is consuming the attention of Philip Tetlock, psychology professor, ...

Your friend says to you: "I bet you $100 that in 2016 a Democrat will be elected as president of the USA." Would you take such a wager? Why or why not? You might think gambling is wrong. You might ...

For millennia, humans have sought new ways of predicting the future, leading to such methods as the crystal ball, star charts and even tea leaf reading. Luckily, the modern business leader has better ...

Hundreds of miles from the U.N. conference on climate change that wrapped this weekend in Belém, Brazil, scientists are conducting a first-of-its-kind experiment that could help future policymakers ...

It is impossible to predict the future, we all know, yet many of us still try to do it in one way or another. We love to hear correct predictions, even though most who attempt it tend to get it wrong.