Israel is preparing for potential military action against Iran, with military action odds at 12.2% YES and ceasefire odds ...

Hezbollah's IED attack killed an Israeli soldier, pushing ceasefire odds to 0%. Ceasefire by March 31, 2026 at 0% YES.

Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has pushed the odds of his endorsement to 100.0% YES, while ...

Iran fired on tankers and set conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Fewer than 10 ships transiting from April 13-19 ...

Iran claims control over the Strait of Hormuz, raising conflict fears. Ceasefire end by April 21 now at 22% YES.

Trump's anti-Israel stance disrupts ceasefire expectations. Endorsement of Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 at 100% ...

Geagea blames Hezbollah for Lebanon violence, signaling potential de-escalation. Diplomatic meeting between Israel and ...

Trump’s decision not to seize Kharg Island has cooled invasion speculation. The market on Kharg Island no longer under ...

US Navy deploys layered force in the Strait of Hormuz. US escorts of commercial ships by April 30 at 21.5% YES.

Israeli Broadcasting Authority suggests Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz again, pushing the Trump US-Iran ceasefire end by ...

Iran's Parliament Speaker expresses readiness for martyrdom amid rising tensions. Leadership change by December 31 at 32.5% ...

The phased reopening follows a US-Israeli military campaign that closed Iranian airspace for 49 days and suggests some ...